After Pope Francis died yesterday, millions worldwide mourned the loss of a widely admired spiritual leader. But others began wagering on who comes next.
The pope’s death sparked a flurry of online bets on the secretive papal selection process, known as a conclave (as depicted in the recent political thriller of the same name). On the prediction market Polymarket, users:
- Have already poured $3+ million into betting on the identity of the next pope, with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the current favorite.
- They are also wagering on the continent the next pope will be from, his papal name, and when he’ll be elected.
It’s not the first time. Morbid bets on whether a new pope would be chosen this year were popular on prediction markets in February, when the 88-year-old Francis was hospitalized with a severe lung infection.
Centuries before Polymarket
Gambling one’s savings away to guess the next head of the Papal States was rampant in the Middle Ages, propelled by leaks from cardinals. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV passed a law threatening excommunication for anyone involved, which was repealed in 1918. Today, papal selection betting is legal in some countries, but not in the US.
Big picture:Polymarket has offered bets on other sensitive events, including whether the Titan submersible, which imploded with five people onboard, would be found in 2023.—SK